If we put aside public relations and self-delusion originating from search engines themselves, what is the probability of search engine results getting more relevant in the coming years?
Not much.
Even as they are telling us the best is yet to come and search will only get better, the “best” may in fact be behind us.
The end of the nineties and the beginning of the new millenium was perfect for Google. They already had huge “firepower” (their most potent algorithms, their most important ideas) while the enemy was puny: a pathetic bunch of metataggers, keywordstuffers and invisibletexters. And not that many people realized the potential of search.
Now the same battlefield is a trillion dollar business opportunity. No matter how many PhDs they line up, ten times as many will probe their algorithms, look for loopholes, use raw force, devise sophisticated assault tactics from the other camp.
All search engines can realistically hope is to keep up with them in this arms race. Of course, “keeping up” will come to us in the guise of exciting buzzwords, feverishly discussed new patents and proudly touted innovative approaches, but for all this, the SERP will not be a nicer, cleaner, more useful and relevant place than it is now. Not any more.
Maybe in highly visible areas, where hand-editing is feasible. In low-value areas also. Wherever the race is for real money (and that’s a sharply increasing segment), it will only get messier.
Which, in turn, is going to make search engines more desperate. And being more desperate will inevitably result in less ethics, less easily applied simple truths, less straightforward optimization techniques - less safety for any site.
The current Google uproar over paid links is just the first stage of this new era.
Tags: SERP relevance
